Week 1 of COP28 ended on 6 December! Ministers have arrived in Dubai to continue negotiations, which are scheduled to end on 12 December. Here, we cover some key topics discussed in the first week.
(Disclaimer: This newsletter is based on negotiations up till 8 December.)
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The opening day at COP28 saw the operationalization of the funding arrangements for loss and damage!
Recap: Loss and damage refers to the consequences of climate change that go beyond what people can adapt to. (Think: the 2022 floods that left one-third of Pakistan underwater.) The L&D fund aims to provide financial assistance to the most climate-vulnerable countries.
Various countries made pledges to the new loss and damage fund, including…
Altogether, the fund collectively has around USD 700 million. But this pales in comparison to the estimated USD 400 billion of loss and damage in developing countries annually.
COP28 also opened with a remembrance for loss and damage pioneer, Bangladesh scientist Saleemul Huq. Huq was one of the longest and most persistent advocates for L&D, and has been described as a “titan of the climate movement”.
Recap: The GST is the most comprehensive assessment of the world’s progress on climate action (or lack thereof). It is conducted every five years, with the first ever one set to be finalised by the end of COP28. Parties must agree on what action is needed to get back on track.
The key point of contention now: A fossil fuel phase-out. Four options are being discussed:
Para 35(c) of the GST text. Parties will have to pick one of these options.
China, India, the Arab Group, and the Like-Minded Developing Countries (which includes Saudi Arabia and Iran) are opposed to including language on phasing out fossil fuels in the text.
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes Singapore, want Option 2. According to Dr Natalie Jones, this phrasing is helpful for two reasons:
a) it is harder to argue against a reference to the IPCC, a body that all countries have mandated to do its work;
b) the references to the Paris Agreement encourages developed countries to take the lead in phasing out fossil fuels.
The fact that phasing out fossil fuels is even on the table is worth celebrating. This was unthinkable a few years ago!
Singapore is also advocating for including the role of climate technology like hydrogen and carbon capture and storage in the GST.
Recap: Think of GGA as the adaptation version of 1.5°C. The goal is to ramp up adaptive capacity, including setting a clear, quantitative, and holistic global target. But the key challenge lies in creating a goal that is simultaneously context-specific and globally applicable.
Adaptation negotiations are in shambles… Many developing countries feel that the draft texts do not properly capture all their views, and have raised concerns about missing text on:
CBDR-RC (Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities)
Means of implementation: Developing countries want quantifiable finance targets (which developed countries will have to fulfill) to support the implementation of adaptation plans
Since parties could not reach consensus within the allocated time of Week 1, GGA is now being passed on to the COP28 Presidency, who will advise on the appropriate next steps.
Let’s break that down. First, what is a just transition? As per Greenpeace UK:
“At the moment, lots of people’s livelihoods are tied to polluting industries. Think oil and gas workers, aviation engineers, factory workers making petrol and diesel vehicles.
If we want to avoid catastrophic climate change, these polluting industries are going to have to change completely. Some of them will have to shrink. And these changes will impact the lives of these workers and their communities.”
So a just transition will require social and economic policies to ensure the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy sources doesn’t leave workers behind.
The Just Transition Work Programme will comprise a series of dialogues to facilitate knowledge sharing between countries. Parties are still working out the nitty gritty details, including the timeline and expected outcomes.
Food for thought: At COP28, Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean said that Singapore is pursuing “a just and equitable transition to net zero”. What might that look like in practice in our local context?
Kenya, Barbados and France are launching an international climate taxation taskforce.
The end goal: To raise billions of dollars for developing countries most vulnerable to climate change.
In the next two years, they will bring together a coalition of countries to consider the feasibility of levies on shipping, aviation, and fossil fuels.
What this means: No new unabated coal plants AND phasing out unabated existing plants.
Significance: The US has the world’s third-biggest capacity of operating coal plants, behind China and India.
BUT: The word 'unabated' means countries could still build new or keep existing coal plants as long as they have emission reduction measures in place, like carbon capture and storage.
Colombia endorsed the Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty.
Endorsed now by 10 nation-states, the Treaty would create a binding international mechanism to halt the expansion of fossil fuels and equitably phase out existing production.
“Some may ask: why would the president of this country want to commit suicide with an economy that relies on fossil fuels? Being here, we are trying to halt a suicide, the death of everything that is alive, everything that exists. This is not economic suicide. We are avoiding the omnicide of the world, of planet Earth. There is no other formula, no other path. Everything else is an illusion.” - Gustavo Petro, President of Colombia
118 countries - including Singapore - signed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge.
What: Aims to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency by 2030.
As we move into the second and final week of COP28, time is running short for parties to reach consensus. We’ll be catching you up on other issues (like Article 6, i.e. carbon markets) and the conference outcomes in next week’s newsletter. Let’s hope there’ll be good news!
Shoutout to this week’s writers! Natalie Goh and Rishika Selvan
