#9 COP28 and Singapore: Key things to look out for
We cover some of the key agenda items at COP28 and how they may be relevant to Singapore!
Conference of Parties 28 (COP28) is the UN’s 28th conference on climate change, and kicks off on Thursday, 30 November in Dubai! This year’s summit comes in the wake of the hottest summer on record and ongoing mass violence in Palestine. There has also been conflict of interest controversy over COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, who is the UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, and Chairman of UAE-owned renewable energy firm Masdar. (Just this week, the BBC claimed that the UAE planned to use its role as COP28 host to make oil deals.)
In this newsletter, we cover some of the key agenda items at COP28 and how they may be relevant to Singapore.
If you’re new to the COP process, pull up our “Jargon Cheat Sheet” as you read this newsletter!
1. Global Stocktake (Article 14)
The Global Stocktake (GST) was established under the Paris Agreement as a process to review global climate action every five years. 2023 marks the first ever GST, which has to be finalised by the end of COP28.
A synthesis report was published in September 2023, highlighting what we already know: the world is way off track to 1.5°C. But what the GST offers is an opportunity for action: at COP28, countries must agree on how they will leverage the GST’s findings to strengthen climate action.
The outcomes of the GST will inform countries’ next round of emission reduction plans (known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), which are due by 2025.
Singapore’s Chief Negotiator for Climate Change, Joseph Teo, will be co-facilitating the technical negotiations for GST at COP28.
2. Loss and Damage (Article 8)
At COP27 last year, parties finally launched a Loss and Damage fund—more than 20 years after it was first proposed. But there’s no money in the fund yet.
Key questions to be addressed at COP28: Who is eligible to receive funds? Who should contribute? How can the L&D fund be operationalised?
The US and EU are pushing for a wide range of funding sources, including from some higher-income non-Annex 1 (“developing”) countries like Saudi Arabia. (This might have implications for Singapore too!)
The EU has said it is prepared to make a “substantial financial contribution” to the fund, while the US has shown more resistance.
The L&D fund is likely to be hosted by the World Bank despite widespread concerns. Developing countries say this decision gives donor countries outsized influence over the fund, as well as leads to high bureaucratic fees. The US is the largest shareholder of the World Bank, and every World Bank president since its inception has been a US citizen.
Note: The most recent text (November 2023) emphasises that L&D funding arrangements are “based on cooperation and facilitation and do not involve liability or compensation”. This wording essentially disregards historical emissions; developed countries do not want the fund to be seen as climate reparations.
3. Carbon Markets (Article 6)
This is one of Singapore’s key priorities at COP! Singapore’s net zero by 2050 strategy will be heavily reliant on carbon markets given domestic alternative energy constraints. Benedict Chia, Director-General for climate change at Singapore’s National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS), will be facilitating negotiations for Article 6.4.
Carbon markets took a big hit this year, in part due to The Guardian’s claims that more than 90% of carbon offsets by the world’s biggest certifier, Verra, are “worthless”. Bolstering the transparency and credibility of carbon markets at COP28 will thus be crucial.
If you’re new to Article 6, check out SYCA’s COP27 explainer!
Negotiations are currently at an extremely technical stage, revolving around some of these issues:
Host authorisation: Some countries want to be able to revoke authorisation of credits they have issued, i.e. “take back” credits they have sold.
Inconsistencies: At COP 28, countries will discuss what happens when there are inconsistencies in countries’ reporting and how these can be addressed. E.g. What happens if a credit is transferred to the wrong entity?
Confidentiality of reporting: The COP27 text was unfortunately significantly watered down, allowing a country to claim that information about its carbon credits is “confidential” and therefore cannot be made publicly available. Negotiators might try to tighten these rules at COP28, e.g. requiring countries to justify why something is considered confidential.
Carbon removals: What counts as a carbon removal activity? How can Article 6 account for risk of non-permanence?
4. Mitigation
The Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26 marked the first ever COP text targeting fossil fuels: “accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”. At COP27, parties debated over expanding this commitment to “phase down of all fossil fuels” (not just coal). They failed to reach agreement and ended up just reaffirming the Glasgow text.
Phasing down or out fossil fuels will be a key battle at COP28.
Some parties like the G7 only support phasing out “unabated” fossil fuels–meaning, phase out fuels that don’t use technology to capture their carbon emissions. This wording would allow for continued expansion of fossil fuel production as long as emissions are “caught” using carbon capture and storage tech. (CCS captures just 0.1% of global emissions today and has been widely criticised as a delay tactic to perpetuate the fossil fuel status quo.)
There is also growing momentum to set a global renewable energy target, specifically to triple RE capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030.
MSE Minister Grace Fu will be co-facilitating mitigation negotiations at COP28.
5. Climate Finance
In 2009, developed countries agreed to mobilise US$100 billion annually for developing countries by 2020. However they failed to meet this target, stoking tensions at past climate talks.
Caveat: The OECD recently said rich countries “likely” reached their target in 2022, which might help to build good faith ahead of COP28. But this was based on “preliminary” and “as yet verified” data.
Some observers argue that existing climate finance is disproportionately in the form of loans rather than grants, which risks trapping poorer nations into debt.
Countries must decide on a new climate finance goal (New Collective Quantitative Goal, or NCQG) by 2024, “taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries”. COP28 will see negotiations over what this new goal should be.
According to the COP21 Paris text, the NCQG must be US$100 billion at minimum. In reality, the UN estimates that countries need roughly US$600 billion per year to implement their emission reductions plans, not including loss and damage financing needs.
6. Global Goal on Adaptation (Article 7.1)
The GGA is a framework established under the Paris Agreement, intended to measure and monitor progress on adaptation globally. But the GGA has yet to be defined. Negotiators have been working to agree on specific, measurable targets that can be standardised across countries.
Finding a common metric is particularly complex for adaptation since solutions tend to be specific to local contexts.
Finance remains a key sticking point in GGA discussions. According to the UN Environment Programme, developing countries need US$387 billion per year to implement domestic adaptation priorities–but finance flows fell to about US$21 billion in 2021.
Developed countries want to keep an adaptation finance target out of the GGA framework, but developing countries say that would just lead to an “empty framework”.
Adopting a finalised GGA text will be a top priority at COP28.
Other Singapore stuff
Singapore will have a Pavilion at COP28 for only the second time ever! This is a space where SG will host side events, showcase local initiatives and companies, and facilitate networking. You can check out the programme schedule and catch live streams here.
The government also launched the inaugural Climate Youth Delegate Program, which will bring 20 young Singaporeans to COP28 this year as part of the national delegation. This includes people from LepakInSG, Inter-University Environmental Coalition, and Students for a Fossil Free Future (S4F). Samantha from Seastainable, Qiyun from The Weird and Wild, and MJ from Just Keep Thinking are attending as part of the SG delegation too!
Check out these resources for a deeper dive!
COP28 Briefing by Melissa Low, Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions
“Interactive: Who wants what at the COP28 climate change summit” https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-who-wants-what-at-the-cop28-climate-change-summit/
SYCA’s COP28 Jargon Cheat Sheet
bit.ly/copcheatsheet
Questions? Feedback? Reach out to kateyeoje@gmail.com or singaporeyouthforclimateaction@gmail.com.
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